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By the time you read this hopefully things will be getting cooler here in the UK. This summer has been hot and dry. Records have been set, weather warnings have been issued and comparisons made to previous hot summers. In particular 1976.

I remember that Summer, I remember it being dry, very dry, rather than the heat although one obviously is related to the other. Comparing 1976 and 2022, the heat was earlier in ‘76 coming in June and July rather that the July and August of ‘22 and the more recent heatwave where records were set and in some cases temperature topped 40°C1. At the moment the current spell of hot weather is more comparable to 1976.

The thing I remember the most is a lot of public places – forests, woodland and heathland – were closed due to the risk of fire. The biggest risk of wildfire was often perceived to be the sun shining and being magnified by discarded glass – bottles were all glass, no plastic back then – rather than now where it’s likely to be someone’s disposable bbq. There were public adverts about it, and most were accepting of the situation. I’m not sure that trying to do the same in 2022 would be received in the same manner it seems more likely that the outraged self-entitlement would prevail. If as predicted a drought order is introduced it will be interesting to see the public reaction. Generally things like hosepipe bans are accepted but what if there are more significant interventions. I guess we’ll have to see, but it does feel like it might prompt some considerable grumbling.

Water was at a premium in ‘76, not unlike it is now, but the population was that much smaller. I remember having a small paddling pool that I’d play in, partly I suspect to cool down and when the pool was emptied it was used to water the garden with. (I can remember my Mum filling it with buckets of water from our waterbutts – we didn’t have an outside tap, and remember hosepipe ban).

I also remember being outside a lot unlike this year. In 2022 when the weather has reached its zenith I have mostly been hiding indoors or in the shade. Fans are the order of the day, blowing hot air around, there was no paddling pool.

Is the comparison between the two years valid? For a one off weather event yes, but 2022 is likely to become closer to the norm for summers in the future. Recent years have seen hot summers and the trend is more towards being hot rather than not. Climate change is driving this, climate is of course not weather. Variability in one off events is weather. 1976 was an unusual weather event, 2022 is also an unusual event but marks a continuing trend in hotter and drier summers. Depending on what the autumn and winter are like we might well still be in drought conditions come the summer of next year. Again this wouldn’t be a first, but it would be significant in terms of how next summer may play out. 2022 is definitely worse than 1976.

In 2068, assuming that global collapse doesn’t happen in the meantime, I don’t think that we’ll be looking back at 2022 comparing the weather in the same way. 40°C might well be a mild summer by then, if we don’t get on top of climate change beforehand. Even if we do temperatures will still have risen to a new summer norm and that is certain to be hotter than now. I doubt I’ll be around to see it though.

It’s nice to enjoy the hot weather, but remember to be careful out there.

Thanks for reading.